Sarko or Ségo, who do I think will be elected?

I think Ségolene could still win if there is a sufficient backlash against Sarkozy.

However, Sarko's character is being fiercely attacked - his posters defaced with a severe parting and a little toothbrush moustache, photos of him in Nazi poses circulated, etc.

Meanwhile Ségo's "participative democracy", where she asks everyone what they want her to do is not sounding all that convincing.

All that makes me think that he is probably going to win.

And that there probably will be demonstrations afterwards.

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